[BookDigest] 贏在未來--產業分析的12堂課

2008, 資策會(MIC)出版

1. Industrial Analysis: 
• 廠商
• Supply chain
• Demand Chain(Channel, Customer)
• Aim to help in decision making
  
2. ISVSA: 
• I--Issue: 
• requirement definition
• intelligence needs(info/question list)
• research planning
• S--Source: 
• primary, secondary research
• 2M2C(macro env---social, tech, economic, regulation---, market, customer---5W1H, competitor) 
• V--Variable
• Parameter: price, size/sharing, accumulated installment, life cycle....
• Model: Five Forces Analysis, BCG Matrix, SWOT, Value Chain
• S--Strategy
• A--Action
  
3. Research Subject: 
• Who is reader
• Impact
• 小題大作
• New View Points
  
4. Data Collection:
• Primary
• Questionnaire
• Interview(起承轉合)
• Conference Panel, focus group 
• Exhibition---user, product, vendor
• (key points, schedule, interviewee, Q-list, media/press, conference)
• Secondary
• Define data item required
• Data source
• Deadline to stop
• Rapid browse, filter, sorting
• Keyword data definition, data accuracy, extracting trend from number, cross reference/check, data enhancement, analysis, cause/effect--implication
  
5. Data interpretation, analysis:
• Item definition and scope
• Unit
• Investigation method
• Interviewee
• Bias of source
• cause/effect --> solution
• View from different stance, angle
• Comparison/Benchmark cross timing, competitor, industry....
• Positive and Negative impact
  
6. Skills
• Problem-Oriented
• Info system，people netowork
• 察言觀色，旁敲側擊
• 拼湊全冒(Jigsaw)
• 無中生有，new model
• 因果關係
• 切中要害，捨棄枝節
• 自圓其說
• 第一時間
• 引導決策
• 產業專業知識，表達能力，積極主動
  
7. Market Size Forecast
• Market
• Potential market: 有興趣購買者
• Available market: 有興趣、能力購買者
• Target/Served market：特定Segment
• Penetrated market: share
• Forecast method
• secondary data: 
• average
• judgement by reputation, research method and data decomposition.
• synthetic by history experience data/model, other statistical data, replacement rate, complimentary, reference from function like product, from customer purchase budget/plan, external factors.
• Investigation
• quick guess based on assumption and weighting
• info transfer link: fab shipment -- Brand vendor -- disti -- retail
• Production--Sales
• public announcement figure
• competitive info
• fab shipmemnt ---> 由 disti shipment 反推
• 由 key component sales 順推 --- fab shipment
• Market Sales
• Big retail channel
• sample from retail store
  
8. Product competitive analysis
• Mass market: oligopoly，monopolize
• Niche market: differentiator, segmentation
• Eventually Mass --> Niche(ex white appliance)
• existing product improvement, totally new product
• 4P
• Product: Performance, Function, Image(design, package, brand, adv, segment--target--position)
• Price
• Internal: position, promotion strategy, cost, vol, capacity
• External: demanding, economics env, competitor, channel, regulation, cusotmer
• Promotion
• Place
• 5 forces
• potential entrant: me too/more better, lower cost, 
• substitute: 
• Product Life Cycle
• Introduction: Gain awareness, 
• Growth: share, profit, branding, gain wider disti
• Maturity: price/margin fall, max profit, extending, seeking break through
• Decline: reduce expense, squeeze value 
• ADL Matrix
• 絕對優勢，強勢，比較優勢，守勢，劣勢
• Ansoff 產品擴張矩陣
• 現有市場/現有產品：market penetration [未飽和，已飽和]
• 現有市場/新產品：product development [趨飽和]
• 新市場/現有產品：market development
• 新市場/新產品：Diversification
9. Technology Portfolio Planning
   
   • 趨勢法(Exploratory Approach): Induction --> Deduction
   • 規範法(Normative Approach): 以未來特定時間所要達成目標反推
10. Company Strategy Analysis
    
    • Usage
    • Benchmark, key successful factor.
    • New business
    • Industrial trend
    • Analysis Items
    • History---Milestone, Event, Organization change
    • Operation performance(earning, profit, eps, sharing, product, territory
    • Product strategy(BCG, roadmap, life cycle), competitive product compassion, SWOT
    • Owner----Stock holder, board, management style/ambition/vision, credit
    • Core competence----core competence --> core product --> end product
    • Core resource----Value, Rareness, Imitability, Substitutability, Appropriability
    • Earning Model(Direct sale, after sales support, indirect sale, finance, IP)
    • Strategy(Level: Corporate, BU, Department)
11. Value Chain Analysis
• Supporting activity----HR, RD, PUR
• Main activity----進料後勤、生產、出貨後勤、行銷與銷售、服務
• 行銷與銷售----行銷管理、廣告、業務人員管理、業務作業、技術文件、促銷
12. 報告撰寫
• 流程
• 釐清需求(READER)
• 擬定題目(量力而為、小題大作)
• 發展大綱(切割、故事、邏輯)
• 決定研究方法
• 蒐集、判讀、解析資料
• 撰寫報告
• 校閱
• 出版
• 內容
• 封面、題目業
• 摘要(Executive Summary, not abstract)---目的、範圍、方法
• 目錄
• 正文
• 結論、建議
• 附錄